The light bands represent seizures of cocaine. The dark bands represent the available supply for market. Together, both bands are the sum of cocaine production.

The only observable trend occurs between 1999 to the most current and reliable figures, which translates to a a conistent, 5-year trend. The volume of cocaine produced has decreased, the amount of available supply has decreased, and volume of interception has increased, thereby translating into a larger percentage of produced supply being seized.

This trend is consistent with the strategy of the ' War on Drugs .' This strategy is one that is aimed supply-side. The logic, which seems intuitive, is that if supply is decreased, then the market will compensate by raising prices as compensation for increased risk of seizure, lowering the purity of the end product to increase the apparent volume of supply, or both.

However, neither outcomes have happened. In fact, the opposite is occuring.

JUST BECAUSE MOST OF THE FIGURES SHOW AN INCREASE, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A TREND. AS THE COCAINE MARKET IS ESSENTIALLY AN UNREGULATED, UNDOCUMENTED INDUSTRY, ALL TRENDS MUST BE TREATED WITH AN ASSUMED LEVEL OF VOLITILITY.

In order to make a rigorous conclusion, we would need consistent trends over long periods of time. Five years of consistent trends does suggest a relatively high level of confidence, however.

Source: 2005 World Drug Report, pg. 612005 World Drug Report, pg. 61 - published by United Nations Drug Control Programme (UNDCP)